Sydney and Hawthorn have been by far the two most consistent and well performed sides of the season, and fittingly will face off in Saturday’s AFL Grand Final to decide who will be the 2014 premiers.
For the winner, it will be their second premiership in three years (Sydney 2012, Hawthorn 2013), and their third in the last decade. While for the loser, a painful preseason of what ifs beckons.
When the two sides met in the decider two years ago, Sydney went into the game as the outsiders. This time around, they go in as firm favourites, after having had an almost perfect build up to the game.
The Swans have once again made no changes to their side, meaning they will go into Saturday’s Grand Final with the same 22 players in three consecutive finals – an almost unheard of accomplishment.
Hawthorn on the other hand, have made two changes to the side that narrowly survived a late comeback from Port Adelaide in last week’s Preliminary Final.
After three consecutive best on ground performances in the VFL, Ben McEvoy comes in at the expense of the unlucky Johnathon Ceglar, while Johnathon Simpkin has made way for the return of Cyril Ryoli.
Ryoli has not played senior football for 10 weeks, and comes into the game with only three fairly lacklustre quarters in last weekend’s VFL Grand Final under his belt. He will more than likely be named as the substitute, however the Hawks are still taking a risk bringing in a player with so little recent football behind him, in what will no doubt be a brutal and taxing contest.
The two sides have met twice this season with the ledger squared at one a piece. Sydney won the first encounter at ANZ Stadium by 19 points back in round eight, while the Hawks turned the tables in round 18 with a hard fought 10 point victory at the MCG.
Sydney appear to have timed their run perfectly. Their only defeat – other than to the Hawks – since round four, was a three point loss to Richmond in the final round of the season. A game in which they rested a number of key personnel.
In their two final’s appearances so far they have accounted for a gritty Fremantle by 24 points, and then demolished North Melbourne in last week’s preliminary final by a massive 73 points. The final score line of 136 to 65, breaking the club record for both highest score and winning margin in a final.
Conversely Hawthorn comfortably overcame Geelong in their semi-final by 36 points, before barely hanging on against Port Adelaide last weekend. The Hawks led the game by 29 points halfway through the last term, before Port Adelaide stormed home to just miss out on a grand final berth by three points.
Of course much of the media’s attention in the lead up to the game has been on Buddy Franklin and the fact he is facing his old side who he won a premiership last year. It is a rare achievement to win premierships in consecutive years with two different teams, however there is so much more to this game than just the ‘Buddy’ factor. Given too, that Franklin has yet to perform at his best in three grand final appearances, the emphasis put on him for the game, although perhaps warranted to a degree, seems a little over the top.
Although he is an important part of the Sydney line up, he is only a part, and the Hawthorn defence will have a lot more than Franklin to keep its hands full. Both Kurt Tippett and Adam Goodes played arguably their best games of the season against the Kangaroos last week kicking seven goals between them. While Luke Parker rotating through the misfield also chipped in with three to continue his outstanding run of form this year. If the Hawthorn defence is too ‘Buddy’ conscious, it could prove costly.
Although Sydney’s forward line is being lauded as arguably one of the best of all time, the Hawks boast a forward line full of talent as well. Between them Roughead (70), Gunston (66) and Bruest (64), have kicked 180 goals this season. Although both Gunston and Bruest have not been at their best in recent weeks, Roughead scored six goals last week and was arguably best on ground.
Both sides have magnificent midfields with an even spread of speed and in and under. For the Swans, Kennedy, Jack, Parker and Hannebery will provide the grunt, while Jetta, Rohan and Cunningham have the leg speed to give the Swans run from both defence and into their forward 50.
Hawthorn while perhaps not boasting the best midfield in the AFL, certainly has the most respected. Hodge, Mitchell and Lewis are three of the toughest players going around, and with the addition of the much improved Will Langford as well as Liam Shiels their midfield also runs deep. The outside dash is provided by Brad Hill and Isaac Smith, while Rioli when he comes on, will provide the X factor.
Given the abilities of both side’s forwards and midfielders, the 2014 Grand Final will most likely be decided by whose defence can handle the opposition’s forwards, and entries inside 50 the better. Sydney has the most miserly back six in the competition, having had the fewest points scored against them this season, while Hawthorn is ranked sixth.
This should be a cracking game between the two best sides of the last three seasons. However although Hawthorn are a magnificent side, it is hard to see them getting over a Swan’s outfit that has seemingly everything clicking into place at the right time.
Sydney’s recent form has been formidable, and their win against the Kangaroos was little more than a training run to prepare them for this game. Hawthorn on the other hand had a very hard game against Port, which may take its toll towards the end of the game.
There is absolutely no doubt Hawthorn will take it up to Sydney, and it will be a hard fought contest. Perhaps one for the ages if Hawthorn gets up, given the injuries and illness they have been dealt this year.
However selecting a winner on the basis of both side’s recent form and preparation, and although a Hawthorn victory would hardly surprise, it is very hard to tip against this current Sydney line up.
Swans by 28.
JAMIES PAGES 