Doubts over Dockers remain

After Fremantle’s comfortable win against the Saints and Hawthorn’s victory over the Eagles last weekend the Dockers now sit 10 points clear at the top of the ladder, and unless they lose all of their remaining games that is where they will be at the end of the home and away season.

The Geelong sides of 2008 and 2009 are the only other teams this century that have had such a commanding lead at the same stage of the season, yet there are still many that question the Docker’s premiership credentials.

Fremantle have only lost two games so far in a season that has been as even as any other in recent memory. A season in which it has been proven time and again that any team can beat any other on any given day. Yet the Dockers continue to win, albeit unconvincingly at times, while all the other contenders continue to be involved in upsets.

Only a fortnight ago West Coast drew with the lowly Suns, while Richmond defeated Hawthorn. Suddenly the Tigers were a very real chance to make the top four and considered by many to be serious contenders. Only a week later they were beaten convincingly by Adelaide and have dropped to seventh, and the chances of them making the top four now seem slim.

This week it is the Bulldogs who are the talk of the town after storming into the top four at the expense of Sydney, who many have now written off after their dismal performance against the Cats at Simmons Stadium on Saturday.

However throughout all of these upsets and chopping and changing of the eight over recent weeks and months, the Dockers have kept winning, and for the last two weeks have done so without Brownlow Medal favourite Nat Fyfe. He and key defender Michael Johnson, who has been out injured since round 10, have both been named in the side for the Western Derby on Sunday afternoon.
Yet despite all of the above the doubts still linger and questions remain.

One of those is Fremantle’s inability to consistently post big scores. They have only registered 100 points or more four times this season, and their average score per game of 85.16 ranks only seventh in the AFL, well behind leaders Hawthorn at 111 and West Coast at 103.8.

Only three times since 2000 has a team won the minor premiership having averaged under 100 points per game during the home and away season – Sydney in 2005, 2014 and St Kilda in 2009. Of those only the Swans of 2005 went on to win the Grand Final.

Compared to previous premiership sides Fremantle’s avenues to goal are extremely limited. Matthew Pavlich is their highest goal scorer so far this season with 34, followed closely by Michael Walters with 32. The next best are Chris Mayne (23), Nat Fyfe (16), Stephen Hill (13), and Michael Barlow (11).

Matthew Pavlich is Fremantle’s leading goal scorer so far in 2015 with 34. Image courtesy Wayne Ludbey

On their season averages none will kick 50 goals this year, and only four will pass the 20 goal mark. Compare this with Hawthorn who in 2014 had three players kick over 50, and another four who kicked over 20. One of those being Cyril Rioli who missed a large chunk of the season.

Even those sides that won the minor premiership without averaging 100 points a game fared better in front of goal than Fremantle. In 2009 the Ross Lyon led Saints had five players kick over 20 goals, including Nick Riewoldt with 78, and Justin Koschitzke and Stephen Milne with 46 and 48 respectively. While the 2014 Swans also had five players kick over 20 for the season, headed by Coleman Medallist Buddy Franklin with 79 and Kurt Tippett 34.

Surprisingly it may be in a defender that Fremantle will find at least part of their solution in front of goal. In the opening nine rounds prior to former All Australian defender Michael Johnson being struck down with a hamstring injury, the Dockers averaged 94 points per game, and had a percentage of 151.6. Since he was injured in the opening minutes of their round 10 clash against Richmond, they have only averaged 75, and their percentage has dropped to 128.8. With Johnson back this week, Fremantle supporters will be hoping that proves true.

Of course it is in defence that Ross Lyon coached sides excel, and with such limited options up forward it is from here perhaps that Fremantle’s premiership hopes lie. However although they have let in the least amount of points so far this season, the Hawks and Eagles are not far behind.

Fremantle have had 1190 points scored against them this season at an average of 66.11 per game, compared to Hawthorn who have conceded 1237 points at 68.72, and West Coast with 1251 at 69.5. The three team’s percentages reflect this with both Hawthorn (161.5), and West Coast (149.5), far ahead of Fremantle (128.8), as not only have they kept their opposition’s score down, they have also scored far more heavily themselves.

Indeed, if the Docker’s percentage remains around where it is at present, it will be the lowest of any minor premier since West Coast (120.4), in 2006. Even the Saints of 2009 (155.7%), and Swans of 2014 (142.9%), had far better.

Despite all of the above there is little doubt that Fremantle will win the minor premiership, and with it the chance to play two finals at home. Should they get through those two games at make it to the MCG on Grand Final day history means nothing, and of course anything is possible – but is it really?

Dejected Fremantle players after the 2013 Grand Final loss to Hawthorn. Image courtesy Michael Wilson, AAP

If as many predict, their opponents in the Grand Final are Hawthorn, not only will they have to overcome those historical hurdles already mentioned, they will also have to break one of the longest droughts between two clubs in the history of the game.

Since their entry into the AFL in 1995 Fremantle have played Hawthorn 31 times and won only eight, and all of those wins have come in Perth. The Dockers have never beaten the Hawks outside of Western Australia in 21 years and 17 attempts. During that time they have met only three times at the MCG with the closest margin being 15 points in the 2013 Grand Final.

Although history maybe against Fremantle winning their first premiership in 2015 those involved in the club, and their supporters will no doubt say that history is irrelevant, and is made to be broken. However even the most ardent and optimistic supporter must concede, it is a hell of a lot of history to overcome.

This article was also published on The Roar

Round 21 Preview: Collingwood vs Hawthorn

With three rounds remaining, the AFL premiership is as open as it has been all season. Four weeks ago most pundits had two of Hawthorn, Geelong or Sydney playing off in the Grand Final, with the rest just making up the numbers.

Since then, a very professional Freemantle (with a very favourable draw), a resurgent Collingwood, and a rapidly improving Richmond have all closed the gap considerably. So much so, that the Dockers appear to have cemented their place in the top four, while Sydney could lose theirs to either Collingwood or Richmond.

There are several vital games involving these three clubs over the final rounds that will ultimately determine the top four, with the first of those, an MCG blockbuster between Hawthorn and Collingwood kicking off round 21.

Expected to attract a crowd over 70,000, this is a massive game for Collingwood. Win, and not only do they keep their top four chances very much alive, they also defeat a top four side for the third consecutive week, and keep their late season momentum going.

A victory against the premiership favourites would also stop a worrying trend of losses against the Hawks, and give the Magpies no end of confidence coming into September.

This, of course will be no easy feat. The Hawks have been going along nicely, sitting comfortably on top of the ladder, and easily accounting for St Kilda last week without really getting out of second gear.

Collingwood’s task is made all the more difficult with the inclusion of Hodge, Franklin and Birchall to the Hawks line up. The return of Hodge and Franklin would be of particular concern to opposition coach Nathan Buckley, given they both seem to go up a level against the Magpies.

Collingwood on the other hand go into the game with an unchanged team for the third consecutive week. The first time this has occurred since 2007.

Their mid-field is almost complete (besides Dale Thomas), and back to its best, with Pendlebury, Swan, Ball, and Beams all clocking up over 30 disposals against Sydney last week. The two way running that effectively shut down the hardest running midfield in the competition could not have been more impressive, as was the pressure the Magpies showed all around the ground.

That two way running from the mid field and team pressure must be replicated if they are to beat the Hawks. They cannot afford to allow clean delivery to Franklin and Roughead – who are starting to accrue numbers reminiscent of their premiership year in 2008, where they kicked over 200 goals between them – from further up the field. If they do, they will be soundly beaten.

At the other end of the field, the forward combination of Travis Cloke and ‘swingman’ Ben Reid is proving to be a winner for the Magpies. As long as Franklin and Roughead are reasonably held, allowing Reid to stay there, they should provide plenty of headaches for the Hawks defence. That headache could become a migraine if they can both kick straight.

Both forward lines should get plenty of chances, as Hawthorn are ranked first for inside 50 entries, and Collingwood second.

Neither coach is heavily into tagging opposition players, although Alistair Clarkson has used Jordan Lewis as a defensive forward on Heath Shaw in the past with great success, and is likely to do so again.

Conversely Nathan Buckley has used Brent Macaffer in a tagging role this year, and he may go to Isaac Smith, who has become one of the most damaging runners in the game in recent months.

On paper, this game should be very close, and could well be. Perhaps the major worry for Collingwood is the recent record between the two teams. The Magpies have very rarely beaten the Hawks in recent times, and when they have, it has been extremely close. On the other hand, when Hawthorn have won, as they more often than not have, it has been very comfortably.

Despite this, Collingwood are playing as well as they have under Nathan Buckley’s tenure, while Hawthorn have been winning without being at their best, and could be ‘due for a loss’.

Question marks must also hang over the fitness of Hodge, Franklin and Birchall – the latter playing his first game for two months. Also taking into account how important the game is for Collingwood, I think they can pull off an upset and continue their push for a top four spot.

Collingwood by 17 points