A former NASA scientist has claimed in a new book that solar activity, not anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for changes to the Earth’s climate.
According to the soon to be released “Dark Winter”, John L. Casey claims that the Earth is not warming, and is in fact heading towards a prolonged period of extreme cold due to a phenomenon known as “solar minimum”.
Casey believes this period of significantly reduced solar activity, which will include less solar flares and sunspots, will see global temperatures fall to levels similar to those experienced in the late 1700s and early 1800s.
“All you have to do is trust natural cycles and follow the facts, and that leads you to the inevitable conclusion that the sun controls the climate, and that a new cold era has begun,” Casey recently said in an interview with Newsmax.com.
“The data is pretty solid. If you look at the 100-year global temperature chart, you look at the steep drop-off we’ve had since 2007. It’s the steepest drop in global temperatures in the last hundred years.”
President of the Space and Science Research Corp (SSRC), a climate research firm based in Orlando Florida, Casey predicts the cooling cycle will peak in the late 2020s and early 2030s, and will see global temperatures fall to almost freezing point, causing complete chaos due to shortages in food.
He also warns the fall in temperatures will increase demand for oil to use for heating, and that ethanol reserves will dwindle due to the failure of corn crops. He says it may even get to the stage where the US government bans the export of agricultural products so as to keep its own citizens from starving.
John L Casey predicts 30 years of ‘dark winters’. Image courtesy Thomas Zakowski
Of course Casey’s theories go against the vast majority of climate scientists who believe despite the hiatus we are currently experiencing, anthropogenic released emissions of CO² and other greenhouse gases are warming the Earth.
“There are two fundamental flaws with that,” says Casey. “No. 1, the greenhouse-gas theory, and the global climate models that they produced, never permitted a pause. As long as CO2 levels were going up, the only thing that could happen was global temperatures could go up. That has not happened.
“No. 2, there could absolutely be no cooling, much less a pause. And yet we’ve been cooling for 11 years now.”
“There is no human on earth, much less here in the U.S., who has experienced the depth and duration of cold we’re about to experience – it’s that serious,” he says.
Carey even suggests that the Russian invasion of the Ukraine was, in reality, to secure that countries’ wheat crops in preparation for this period of ‘solar hibernation’.
Casey’s theories are shared by others, including noted Russian astrophysicist, Habibullo I. Abdussamatov, who says solar activity, “corresponds to shifts in global temperature with a greater than 90 percent accuracy.”
However Abdussamatov’s predictions are even direr than that of Casey, claiming “a new mini-ice age has already begun.”
Although there are others that support Casey and Abdussamatov’s theories on solar activity being the dominant driver of the Earth’s climate, there are also many others that disagree. Including climate change sceptics Junkscience.com, who have stated.
“We think [Casey] is a scam artist trying to get his hands in your pockets, but couldn’t see how he expected to do so. Now he’s told us.
“He’s looking for ‘meaningful funding’, and he thinks the skeptic community might be eager enough to slay the catastrophic warming myth to fork over some cash.
Casey suggests the Russian invasion of Ukraine was to secure wheat in preparation for the approaching cold. Image courtesy Shamil Zhumatov
Sceptical Science.com also have debunked Casey’s theories, claiming that while the sun may impact on Earth’s climate, it only accounts for around 40 percent of those changes.
The Broward Palm Beach New Times found that “Casey’s work has never been published in a peer-reviewed academic journal, only self-published on the internet.”
Climate scientists at Yale University were reportedly even less impressed with Casey’s theories. ”Unfortunately no one has the time for those clowns. There’s too many of them,” they are quoted as saying.
In responce to the criticism, Casey told the Times there was a, “history of bias by some journals to publish anything that does not support manmade global warming.”
“The importance of the findings and conclusions mandated the widest public dissemination possible, which the web supplies,” he said.
John L. Casey has been a policy advisor for two US Presidents, and as well as being President of the SSRC is CEO of the International Earthquake and Volcano Prediction Center. He is also a member of the Palm Beach County Tea Party.
The sixth article in this series on climate change investigates the sources of anthropogenic CO² and other greenhouse gas emissions, and whether they have contributed to the rise in surface temperature that the Earth has experienced over the last century.
“Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important heat-trapping (greenhouse) gas, which is released through human activities such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels, as well as natural processes such as respiration and volcanic eruptions.” NASA
Somewhere between five to eight thousand BC, human beings ceased their nomadic existence and began to settle in one area, create communities and plant crops. It was the first time that a species on Earth had radically altered their environment so as to make life more comfortable for themselves.
Some 10,000 years later we are still altering the environment as we seem fit. However unlike our ancestors who numbered around five million and were unable to roam too far from their homes, there are now almost eight billion of us with virtually nowhere on the planet inaccessible to us, or where we have not left our mark.
It is naive to suggest these changes have not affected the Earth in some way shape or form. Greenhouse gases, deforestation, water contamination, over farming, mining, and the extinction of numerous species of flora and fauna, all must have some detrimental effect on the natural equilibrium that has existed on Earth for millions of years.
Although the Earth is made of many ecosystems to create the whole, our planet’s global equilibrium is controlled by the carbon cycle. The carbon cycle refers to the hundreds of billions of tons of carbon that move between the atmosphere (air), hydrosphere (water), geosphere (Earth), biosphere (life), and pedosphere (land and soil), each year.
The vast majority of Earth’s carbon is stored underground. The carbon that resides in the atmosphere comes in the form of greenhouse gases, and in particular carbon dioxide (CO²).
Although CO² is accountable for only 20 percent of Earth’s greenhouse effect (water vapour 50%, clouds 25%), scientists have found that CO² sets the temperature. So while CO² may contribute less to the greenhouse effect than water vapour overall, it does control the amount of water vapour present in the atmosphere and consequently the extent of the greenhouse effect.
For more than a century, sections of the scientific community have warned anthropogenic emissions of CO² and other greenhouse gases could have an adverse effect on the world’s climate.
In 1896 Swedish scientist Svante Arrhenius calculated that doubling the amount of CO² in the atmosphere would melt the arctic ice, and in 1932 American physicist EO Hulburt released a paper supporting those findings. Then in 1938 English engineer Guy Callendar published, ‘The artificial production of carbon dioxide and its influence on temperature’. Callender’s research was the first to assemble actual evidence that showed both CO² and the average global temperature were increasing.
According to figures from NASA, atmospheric levels of CO² are higher than they have been at any time in the past 400,000 years. It is estimated by NASA and many other scientific organrisations that global anthropogenic emissions of CO² and other geenhouse gases now exceed over 35 billion tonnes each yea.r
CO2 levels over the last 400,000 years. Figures courtesy NASA
The figures from NASA show that CO² levels were approximately 200 parts per million (ppm), during ice ages and around 280 ppm during warmer interglacial periods. Yet in 2013, CO² levels surpassed 400 ppm, or four parts in every 10,000 for the first time in recorded history.
The ideal amount of carbon in our atmosphere is 300th of one percent, or three molecules in every 10,000. A difference of only three molecules per 10,000 either way would turn the Earth into a desert wasteland or frozen block of ice. Simple mathematics tells us we have cause for concern.
FOSSIL FUEL EMISSIONS
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions come from two sources. The first known as ‘fossil fuel related emissions’, is from the burning of fossil fuels, while the second is referred to as ‘direct emissions’, and includes land use change (deforestation), agriculture and waste.
The first is perhaps the most debated and focused upon of the two sources, particularly by politicians and mass media. Historically speaking, it is easy to make the connection that the increase in the Earth’s surface temperature and the burning of fossil fuels are linked. During the last 100 years surface temperatures have risen 20 times faster than the previous 5000, and CO² levels in the atmosphere are 40 percent more than they were prior to the industrial revolution.
Global surface temperatures 1880-2012. See above for CO2 levels. Data courtesy NASA
Coal began being used to generate electricity in homes and factories around 1880, while by the same year the United States was producing 19 million barrels of oil – compared to only 2000 per year two decades earlier. By the beginning of the 20th century that figure had risen to almost 60 million.
In 2012 the annual global production of oil had reached almost 32 billion barrels, while in the same year over 7.8 billion tonnes of coal was produced. Much of it used to power the 2300 coal-fired power stations worldwide. Approximately 620 of which are in China.
According to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA), earlier this year 31.18 billion tonnes of CO² was released into the Earth’s atmosphere due to coal, oil and gas production in 2011.
However there are those that suggest the amounts of CO² released into the atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels is exceeded by naturally occurring factors, in particular volcanoes.
Geologist and noted climate change sceptic Ian Plimer of the University of Adelaide is one. Professor Plimer caused much controversy in his 2009 best seller “Heaven and Earth: Global Warming — the Missing Science,” when he suggested that was indeed the case.
“Over the past 250 years, humans have added just one part of CO² in 10,000 to the atmosphere. One volcanic cough can do this in a day,” he says.
Ian Pilmer says CO2 from volcanoes far outweighs man made emissions. Image courtesy Matt Turner
Plimer’s conclusions are supported Timothy Casey, another geologist and Earth scientist who writes, “There is insufficient data to distinguish the effects of volcanic CO² from fossil fuel CO² in the atmosphere.”
Casey also suggests, “A brief survey of the literature concerning volcanogenic carbon dioxide emission finds that estimates of sub aerial emission totals fail to account for the diversity of volcanic emissions.”
As was mentioned in ‘the 97 percent consensus’, geologists are the most sceptical of the sciences when it comes to the subject of anthropogenic climate change. So it is worth noting that theAmerican Geophysical Union disagrees entirely.
In a paper published in 2009 the AGU states, “Research findings indicate unequivocally that the answer to this frequently asked question is human activities.”
“However most people, including some Earth scientists working in fields outside volcanology, are surprised by this answer.”
Citing a number of sources, it puts global estimates of the annual CO² output of the Earth’s degassing sub aerial and submarine volcanoes in a range somewhere between 0.13 to 0.44 billion metric tons per year. The paper estimates annual anthropogenic CO² emissions at 35 billion metric tonnes.
According to NASA, “This recent relentless rise in CO2 shows a remarkably constant relationship with fossil-fuel burning, and can be well accounted for based on the simple premise that about 60 percent of fossil-fuel emissions stay in the air.”
While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), released its Fifth Assessment Synthesis last week which stated amongst its findings that, ”Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are now higher than ever before.
“Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the effects have been detected throughout the Earth’s climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the 1950s.”
The second source of anthropogenic greenhouse gases come in the form of ‘direct emissions’, which include land use change (deforestation), agriculture and waste.
DEFORESTATION
Many would argue that land use change, and in particular deforestation is a far larger issue than that of emissions from the burning of fossil fuels. Indeed a number of those who believe the burning of fossil fuels has little impact on global warming, consider deforestation to be the most important environmental issue we face.
While humans have been deforesting the Earth to some degree for thousands of years to clear land for communities, crops and livestock, it has never been at such an extreme rate as has been seen over the last few decades.
Global tree cover loss 2000-2012 Image courtesy World Resource Institute
It is estimated that half of the world’s forests have now been lost to deforestation. Studies conducted by the United Nations’ Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and other scientific and environmental societies, show that up to 18 million acres (7.3 million hectares), of forests are being cleared each year.
The Earth’s forests are the second largest storehouses of carbon behind its oceans, and are often referred to as carbon sinks. Subsequently they play a vital role in the carbon cycle.
A 2005 study done by the FAO calculated the world’s forests contained approximately 638 billion tonnes of carbon, while current estimates suggest tropical forests (where most deforestation occurs), hold more than 210 billion tonnes.
At present greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation exceed that of all the cars, trucks and planes on Earth combined.
Transport produces 14 percent of global greenhouse gases annually, while emissions from deforestation are estimated to be over 5.2 billion tonnes each year, accounting for between 15 and 20 percent of total anthropogenic emissions.
And ironically, by continuing to cut down the world’s forests, not only are we emitting billions more tonnes of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, we are also depriving ourselves and the Earth of one of the most effective ways of capturing the excess CO² and safely storing it.
Deforestation occurs for many reasons and comes in many forms, including clear-cutting for agriculture, livestock and urban development, unsustainable logging for timber, fire, and land degradation. Each effecting the environment in numerous ways.
Tropical forests span both sides of the Equator, thriving in the warm, usually wet, climate, under the Sun’s most direct rays. Evergreen forests between the Tropic of Cancer (North) and Tropic of Capricorn (South) are dark green on this map, while other biomes are lighter. (Image by Robert Simmon, based on Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Land Cover Classification data.)
After a tree loses all its moisture, half of its weight is made up of carbon. When forests are cleared by fire, the carbon stored in the trees is released directly into the atmosphere in the form of CO².
Studies have shown that when a vast area of forest has been cleared and left bare, by such as fire or unsustainable logging it can lead to aridity and even periods of drought. Particularly during extended warmer periods such as El Nino events.
Trees not only emit carbon dioxide, they also release water vapour into the atmosphere. It is estimated that 30 percent of rainfall in tropical forests is produced from water that has been recycled back into the air from the soil and vegetation. This released water vapour serves two important purposes. Firstly condensing into clouds, falling again as rain in a perpetual self-watering cycle, and also cooling the atmosphere. If there are no trees to emit water vapour, the area can become drier and hotter.
Deforestation can lead to land aridity and even drought. Image courtesy Liliana Usvat
As does the forest’s floor. The soils which form the floor of a forest are usually moist, carpeted with a thick layer of organic matter in various stages of decay. This organic matter known as peat, dries out quickly without the canopy of the forest to shield it from the sun. And as it dries it releases even more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Once the peat has dried it also becomes highly flammable, and if burnt, whether by the ever increasing chances of natural fire, or ignited by human hands to clear the last vestiges of forest, it again emits more greenhouse gases.
AGRICULTURE
The predominant reasons for deforestation both currently and historically has been for urbanisation and agriculture. As the world’s population has grown, so has the demand for both housing and food.
The FAO estimates that we are using 70 percent more land for agriculture than we were a century ago. A third of the Earth’s land mass is now being used for agriculture, and because the global consumption of meat has doubled in the last 50 years, approximately two thirds of agricultural land is now put aside for livestock. Of the 25 percent of land left for crops, a third of that is used to feed that livestock.
A third of the world’s land mass is now being used for agriculture. Image courtesy Our World in Data
Agriculture produces approximately five billion tonnes of greenhouse gases each year, accounting for 15 percent of total global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.
However unlike emissions from the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation which are predominantly CO², agricultural emissions are made up mostly of methane – a greenhouse gas 25 times more potent than CO².
Much of that methane is emitted by cattle through enteric fermentation. Cows contribute 40 percent of total agricultural greenhouse gas emissions. Although contrary to the belief of many they release methane through belching, not from an “emission of wind” from the other end. An adult cow is responsible for emitting the same amount of greenhouse gas into the atmosphere each year as a family car.
A cow emits the same amount of greenhouse gas as a car each year. Image courtesy Dairy Australia
The waste product of livestock is the second largest contributor to agricultural emissions. Manure left on pastures and manure management make up 23 percent of total agricultural greenhouse emissions. Although also emitting methane, manure produces nitrous oxide (otherwise known as laughing gas), which is even more potent than methane.
When the ground is ploughed the carbon left in the soil is released as nitrous oxide from fertilizers and pesticides. The manipulation of soil for agriculture is responsible for another 20 percent of total agricultural emissions, while renewable energy consultancy firm Ecofys, estimates soil manipulation is responsible for 4.4 percent of total anthropogenic emissions worldwide.
An FAO report estimated that in 2010, emissions from energy use in the agriculture sector to be in excess of 785 million tonnes of CO². A 75 percent increase since 1990. While other factors that contribute to agricultural greenhouse gases include rice cultivation, the burning of savannah, and crop residues.
Like deforestation, the consequences and issues concerning agriculture are many, and by no means limited to the emission of greenhouse gases. Although together they contribute 30 percent of anthropogenic greenhouse gases into the Earth’s atmosphere, the environmental damage that can be caused both locally and regionally could outweigh even that.
Soil erosion, land degradation and water contamination can decimate areas for both animals and humans alike, and are just some of the consequences of deforestation and agriculture. While the extinction of species is at its highest rate since the dinosaurs died out some 65 million years ago.
WASTE
The third source of direct emissions is through the waste generated by civilisation. The disposal and treatment of waste produces less than four percent or about 120 million tonnes of anthropogenic greenhouses gas emissions annually.
The main contributors to waste emissions are methane and CO², both of which are released during the breakdown of organic matter in landfills. Biodegradable waste produces between 200 and 400 cubic metres of landfill gas per tonne which is made up of between 50-55% of methane and 40-45% of CO².
The incineration of waste produces CO², as often fossil fuel based products such as plastic are burnt. While other waste treatments, such as composting or fermentation of biowaste, and pre-treatment of waste for landfill, all produce methane or nitrous oxide emissions in various quantities.
Environmental impacts of land fill site. Image courtesy EPA
Even recycling produces CO², although what is emitted is only a fraction of what would be released if new raw materials were required.
Waste management and disposal methods are always improving, and although waste produces only a small percentage of total anthropogenic greenhouse gases, those emissions are lessening each year. Despite the fact more waste is produced by ever growing global population.
As is the case with deforestation and agriculture though, perhaps waste has a greater impact on the environment than it does through greenhouse gas emissions.
In landfills for example, organic and inorganic pollutants mix together to produce a concoction known as leachate. Which despite compulsory liners, can still leak from the landfill and contaminate nearby soil and groundwater.
And it is not only on land that the effects of human waste products can be found. It is estimated that six million tonnes of rubbish is thrown into the world’s oceans each year, and that in the Pacific alone there is enough plastic to cover the US state of Texas.
The impact of waste products from our civilisation can even be seen in space. NASA estimates there are over 500,000 pieces of debris, or space junk in orbit around the Earth. This space junk travels at speeds of up to 28,000 kph, which is easily fast enough for even a small piece of debris to damage a functioning satellite or spacecraft.
NASA estimates there are over 500,000 pieces of ‘space junk’ in orbit around the Earth. Image courtesy NASA
There really can be no doubt that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions have had an effect on the Earth’s surface temperature.
While an argument could perhaps be made on any of the above affecting the Earth’s climate individually, taken as a whole any argument claiming otherwise is contradictory to the hard facts.
Data from numerous scientific organisations show that in 2013 at least 35 billion tonnes of CO² and other greenhouse gases produced from by-products of human civilisation were released into the atmosphere.
According to a review paper published last month in Nature Geoscience, cumulative global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions from 1870 to 2013 total a staggering 1,430 billion tonnes.
To put that figure into perspective, based on the figures mentioned previously, it would take all the volcanoes on Earth (and under the sea), well over 3000 years to release that amount of greenhouse gas.
The largest historical contributor to greenhouse gas emissions by far has been the United States, who have released 370 billion tonnes. The countries that now make up the European Union are responsible for 328 billion tonnes, while Chinese emissions now total 161 billion tonnes, and India are up to 44 billion tonnes.
The 20 highest emitting countries of greenhouse gases. 1) China 2) USA 3) India 4) Russia 5) Japan 6) Germany 7) South Korea 8) Iran 9) Saudi Arabia10) Canada 11) Indonesia 12) Brazil 13) Mexico 14) United Kingdom 15) South Africa 16) Italy 17) France 18) Australia 19) Thailand 20) Turkey
The European Union is the only one of those to have reduced their emissions in 2013 according to the “Global Carbon Budget 2014,” which was published in the Earth System Science Data Discussions journal in September. The other three (US, China and India), are responsible for 90 percent of the 2.3 percent increase in emissions worldwide in 2013. Had it not been for the European Union’s significant reductions, the global increase would have been over 13 percent.
If emissions rise another 2.5 percent in 2014 as predicted by the researchers, greenhouse gas emissions will be 60 times higher than the 1990 benchmark levels agreed upon in the Kyoto Protocol of 1997.
Click on image for interactive carbon atlas created by the Global Carbon Project
Although historically the US has been the highest annual emitter of GHG, they were surpassed by China in 2007, and given China’s emissions increased by a massive 57 percent last year compared to a rise of 20 percent in the US, it would appear they will hold the ignominious title for the foreseeable future.
However the US still produces more emissions per capita having released 16.4 metric tonnes per person in 2013 compared to China’s 7.2. While not ranked high in total emissions, the oil producing countries of the Middle East are the highest per capita emitters with Qatar producing 58 metric tonnes per person, followed by The UAE at 30 and Bahrain at 28. The world average emissions per person in 2013 was five metric tonnes.
The vast majority of scientists and most governments agree that CO² and anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions must be reduced. Only last week the two largest global emitters – the US and China, entered into a new agreement of greenhouse gas emission targets.
China and the United States have reached a new agreement on reducing GHG emissions. Image courtesy Mandel Ngan.
China have agreed to stop increasing their fossil fuel emissions by 2030, while the US will aim to reduce their emissions by 26 to 28 percent of 2005 levels by 2025.
However while this new agreement is welcome news, agreements between governments have been made before, and those set targets have not been reached.
Governments change and so do their policies, and while one government may be a supporter of reducing emissions, the next may not.
Australia is a perfect example of this. The previous Labour government introduced a carbon tax on large emitters, yet that tax was abolished by the current government, led by well known climate sceptic Tony Abbott.
Australian PM Tony Abbott – a renowned climate change sceptic – repealed Australia’s carbon tax which was introduced by the previous Labour Government. Image courtesy SMH.
And with so many powerful and influential sections of society with an opposing agenda, not to mention the fact that we, the general public are loathe to give up the comforts we have become accustomed to, the reductions are proving hard to implement.
Perhaps new scientific discoveries have more hope of reducing emissions than any governmental policy put in place.
Researchers from the University of Adelaide have developed a new nanostructured metal-organic framework which absorbs CO² molecules from the air. The researchers suggest the material could be used to remove carbon dioxide from power plant flue gases, which would significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions from the production of electricity.
To a certain degree, scientific advancements got us into this predicament, perhaps scientists are the only ones that can get us out.
NASA climate scientist, James E. Hansen image courtesy Fred R. Conrad
UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for quick and decisive action to limit global warming. Image courtesy Mike Segar Reuters
The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), has concluded that human influence on the climate system is clear and growing, and if left unchecked will have severe and irreversible consequences.
It expresses with even greater certainty than previous assessments, that anthropogenic drivers such as the emissions of greenhouse gases have been the dominant causes of observed global warming since the middle of the 20th century.
In launching the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Synthesis Report in Copenhagen on Sunday, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon called for urgent action to arrest human caused global warming before it is too late.
“If we continue business as usual, our opportunity to keep temperature rises below two degrees centigrade will slip away within the next decade,” Ban said.
“If we act now, immediately and decisively, we have the means to build a better and more sustainable world.”
“Let’s work together to make this world, our only planet earth, sustainable economically, socially and environmentally for our succeeding generations. Let us preserve our only planet earth in a sustainable way,”
Ban described the IPCC Synthesis Report as the most comprehensive investigation into climate change ever undertaken, explaining it had been compiled by hundreds of scientists from around the globe.
Produced by about 60 authors and editors, who were supported by 830 coordinating lead authors and review editors from over 80 countries. The report brought together experts in a range of scientific, technical and socio-economic views and expertise, who assessed more than 30,000 scientific papers on climate change and its associated fields.
The Synthesis Report’s development was co-ordinated by IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri, who said the report makes it clear those who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalized are especially vulnerable to climate change. He added the least developed countries are particularly at risk given their limited ability to cope.
“Many of those most vulnerable to climate change have contributed and [will continiue to] contribute little to greenhouse gas emissions,” Pachauri said.
“Addressing climate change will not be possible if individual agents advance their own interests independently; it can only be achieved through cooperative responses, including international cooperation.”
IPCC Chair R.K. Pachauri, said the report makes it clear those who are socially, economically, culturally, politically, institutionally, or otherwise marginalized are especially vulnerable to climate change. Image courtesy Martial Trezzini/EPA
Among the key findings of the report were that human influence on the climate system is clear and growing, with impacts having been observed on all continents, and if left unchecked, climate change will increase the likelihood of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems.
However, it also found that options are available to adapt to climate change. The implementation of stringent mitigations activities could ensure the impacts of climate change remain within a manageable range, enabling the creation of a brighter and more sustainable future.
One of the report’s co-authors, Vicente Barros believes adaptation can play a key role in decreasing the risks. “Adaptation is so important because it can be integrated with the pursuit of development, and can help prepare for the risks to which we are already committed by past emissions and existing infrastructure,” he said.
But while adaption will play a vital role, according to the report it will not be enough. It emphasises that unless additional mitigation is applied by 2030, the technological, economic, social and institutional challenges associated with limiting global warming to below 2ºC relative to pre-industrial levels will substantially increase.
“It is technically feasible to transition to a low-carbon economy,” said Youba Sokona, another of the reports’ authors.
“But what is lacking are appropriate policies and institutions. The longer we wait to take action, the more it will cost to adapt and mitigate climate change.”
The Synthesis Report is the fourth volume (and according to the IPCC the ‘capstone’) of their Fifth Assessment Report. It follows on from the findings of the first three volumes which the IPCC has released over the past 14 months – The Physical Science Basis in September (2013), Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (2014), and Mitigation of Climate Change (2014).
IPCC Synthesis Report Findings
The report concludes that the warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and states many of the observed changes since the 1950s are unprecedented over decades to millennia. Both the atmosphere and oceans have warmed, while the amounts of snow and ice have diminished, and sea levels have risen.
Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are now higher than ever before. Driven largely by economic and population growth, they have increased since the pre-industrial era, which has led to atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide that are unprecedented in at least the last 800,000 years.
Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the effects have been detected throughout the Earth’s climate system and are extremely likely to have been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the 1950s.
Changes in climate from both natural and anthropogenic causes over recent decades have impacted on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans, which indicates the sensitivity of both natural and human systems to changing climate.
Changes in climate from both natural and anthropogenic causes over recent decades have impacted on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans, which indicates the sensitivity of both natural and human systems to changing climate.
Changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed since the 1950s and have been linked to human influences. Including a decrease in extreme cold temperatures, as well as an increase in extreme warm temperatures, high sea levels, and the number of heavy precipitation events in many regions.
Continued emission of greenhouse gases will cause further effect on all components of the climate system. This will increase the possibility of severe, pervasive and irreversible impacts for people and ecosystems around the globe. Limiting climate change would require substantial and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions which, together with adaptation, can limit climate change risks.
Many aspects of climate change and associated impacts will continue for centuries, even if anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are stopped. The risks of abrupt or irreversible changes increase as the magnitude of the warming increases.
JAMIES PAGES 